Indo-China-Pak Trilateral Relations and India’s Future Prospects

Samyak Rachit Banerjee | Posted on January 8, 2024 |

The following research paper shall shed light into the dynamics of this trilateral border relationship and how it has played out and influenced the policies of the nations concerned. This trilateral relation is characterized by the territorial claims of these three nations and the occasional military standoffs and in some cases, wars. This abstract highlights the importance of recent infrastructure push by particularly India and China in order to strengthen their claims in recent years. It also emphasizes the rapid military modernization undertaken by the three nations to ensure deterrence and security and the impact it has on India’s border relations with China and Pakistan. While these concepts are being elucidated upon in this research, the paper shall also shed light on the various skirmishes and standoffs India has had with these two nations especially in the recent years. It aims to contribute to the existing literature on the subject and serve as a foundation for further research, policy formulation, and strategic decision-making related to India’s foreign relations, regional influence, and long-term security.

Introduction

Since gaining its independence on August 15, 1947, India has worked to improve relations with its neighbours under the leadership of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. While India has had good relations with nations like Nepal, Bhutan, and later Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, its relations with Pakistan and China have not been as successful. As a result, India must protect a total of 6811 kilometres of its borders with these neighbours, with whom it has tense relations. The primary objective of this paper is to examine India’s border relations with its neighbouring countries, China and Pakistan, with particular emphasis on the various border skirmishes that have occurred. The study aims to assess how India has responded to these two nations’ actions in order to safeguard its borders and uphold its territorial integrity. Furthermore, this research will explore India’s consistent attempts to engage and establish cordial relations with both China and Pakistan, only to witness these efforts falter due to the hidden agendas of the other parties involved. The study will also analyse how these failed diplomatic endeavours have influenced the prevailing security challenges faced by India, potentially necessitating the need to confront threats on two fronts simultaneously to ensure its self-preservation.

Pakistan

Upon attaining independence, Pakistan promptly directed its focus towards Kashmir in its dealings with India, contending that India had unlawfully integrated the region into its territory. In pursuit of compelling the state of Jammu and Kashmir, particularly the Kashmir region, to secede from India, Pakistan engaged in several armed conflicts with India. These wars were a direct consequence of the Kashmir issue and the differing territorial claims between the two nations. For the past 76 years, the issue of contention between these two nations continues to be the Kashmir region, which has also led to heightened border activities across the 3323km long border shared among them. Pakistan has also been accused of backing several terror organisations which are responsible for committing the acts of cross border terrorism in India in an effort to destabilize it. There were anticipations that the administration of India’s newly elected Prime Minister Modi would embark on substantial peace negotiations with Pakistan, especially following the invitation extended to Nawaz Sharif to attend his inauguration in 2014. However, despite a fleeting moment of optimism, relations between the two countries soured once again when India cancelled talks with Pakistan’s foreign minister in August 2014. This decision came in response to a meeting between Kashmiri separatist leaders and the Pakistani high commissioner in India, leading to further deterioration in bilateral ties (Centre for Preventive Action, 2023).

Nonetheless, the trajectory of tranquillity and substantial discussions was disrupted in September 2016 when armed militants launched a strike on a remote Indian Army base near the Line of Control, resulting in the deaths of eighteen Indian soldiers. This attack stood as the most lethal assault on the Indian armed forces in several decades, marking a significant turning point in the prevailing situation. Indian authorities attributed the attack to Jaish-e-Mohammad, an organization allegedly linked to Pakistan’s principal intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (Centre for Preventive Action, 2023). The Indian government responded by declaring that it had carried out a number of surgical strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistani territory. On February 14^th 2019, a devastating suicide car bombing orchestrated by Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed the lives of nearly 40 members of India’s paramilitary forces in the region of Kashmir, which falls under Indian administration (Pokraka, 2019). India launched an airstrike over the LoC in response.

Amidst the continuing hostilities along the Line of Control (LoC) and escalating violence between the two nations, the global community expresses apprehension regarding the potential escalation into a full-scale war between these two nuclear-armed neighbours. In February 2019, India executed an aerial operation in retaliation to a terrorist attack, during which Pakistan shot down an Indian aircraft and briefly held the pilot captive. This tense exchange of hostilities led to a situation described by the former US Secretary of State as bringing the two countries perilously close to a “nuclear conflagration” (Biswas, 2023). The border clashes have had profound ramifications on regional stability. The toll on human lives, displacement of civilians, and substantial economic losses have been significant repercussions of these confrontations. Additionally, the persistent hostilities have strained diplomatic ties between the involved nations and exerted broader effects on the dynamics of regional security. It is of utmost importance for the global community to stay watchful and actively participate in diplomatic endeavours aimed at fostering dialogue and reducing tensions between the two countries. The potential of a nuclear confrontation necessitates a united and collaborative dedication to avert any further escalation and to seek peaceful means to address grievances.

China

In the 1950s, India was among the first nations to officially acknowledge Mao’s communist regime in China. During that period, the senior leaders of both countries played a significant role in initiating diplomatic relations between China and India, while concurrently endorsing the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” (Indians and Chinese are brothers) resounded throughout our two countries (The Hindu, 2020). India and China possess a border stretching 3488 kilometres, and their interactions along the Line of Actual Control have proven to be challenging, to say the least.

China’s intentions have been everything but sincere when it comes to the concerns of dealing with the disputed areas. In 2013, personnel from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) commenced the construction of a camp near Reiki Null, in proximity to Asia Chin. In response, the Indian army set up their camp merely 300 meters away from the location (Biswas J. , 2020). Following the arrival of reinforcements in China, the situation experienced a rapid deterioration over a three-week period. Notably, in 2017, within the disputed region of Doklam, involving India, China, and Bhutan, China commenced road construction activities. Between June 16 and August 28, a prolonged 73-day standoff ensued between India and China due to their conflicting stances. India strongly objected to China’s assertive approach in constructing infrastructure in disputed regions, as it sought to reinforce its territorial claims. This crisis was eventually resolved through diplomatic efforts, allowing both countries to find a resolution to their differences (EFSAS, 2018). On June 15, 2020, a highly intense military confrontation occurred in the Galwan Valley, located in eastern Ladakh, resulting in the loss of twenty Indian Army personnel, including a commanding officer (CO). This incident marked the most severe armed conflict between the two sides in over five decades (Aroor, 2020).

In a bid to prevent potential conflicts, both countries reached a consensus to retreat their military forces by a few kilometres. Subsequently, both parties embarked on the construction of bridges within their respective territories, aiming to enhance troop mobility and response capabilities in the event of any future hostilities. The present state of India-China relations can be described as stagnant, with neither notable progress nor deterioration. This condition of limbo holds considerable significance, especially in light of the substantial troop presence on each side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border where territorial disputes between the two nations persist. With over 60,000 troops stationed on both sides, the risk of unintended escalation of hostilities cannot be overstated (Rajagopalan, 2022). The substantial deployment of troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and China’s occasional aggressive actions indicates that the relations between the two nations have not experienced notable improvements, despite external appearances. Although China and India maintain regular involvement in regional and international forums, India has, to this point, been cautious in engaging China on a routine basis in bilateral contexts (Rajagopalan, 2022). Despite China’s assurances that India and China do not pose a threat to one another, India lacks faith in China’s sincerity due to its repeated confrontational actions. This lack of trust in China and the subsequent scepticism are only going to grow given the antagonistic behaviour of China on the ground.

Despite sporadic talks between the military officials of both nations, General Manoj Pande, the Chief of the Indian Army, recently asserted that China has not diminished its troop presence at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Moreover, he highlighted that China’s infrastructure development activities along the border continue without any reduction, a fact supported by independent satellite imagery and corroborated in the latest report by the U.S. Defence Department concerning China. General Pande characterized the situation as “stable but unpredictable,” indicating the inherent structural unpredictability that has become a defining feature of the India-China border relations (Singh, 2022). Since 2020, there have been seven areas in Ladakh where Indian and Chinese troops have been in confrontational situations. Among these areas, two have experienced no alteration, while in the remaining five, both sides have taken modest steps back. However, the most troubling concern for India lies in the eastern section of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), particularly in the region between Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet. In this area, China enjoys a significant advantage in terms of infrastructure and military presence, which has put New Delhi in a defensive position (Singh, 2022). During the 1960s, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) required an entire summer season to mobilize and initiate military operations in Ladakh, planning for the following summer. However, presently, the PLA could accomplish the same operation within a couple of weeks. Indian military strategists must come to terms with this reality, even if the current border crisis is resolved (Singh, 2022).

Enemy of an Enemy is a Friend

Ever since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1951, China and Pakistan have enjoyed a strong and advantageous relationship built on shared interests. Their bond is characterized by a shared strategic vision, robust economic connections, and military cooperation. Throughout history, China has been a prominent provider of considerable economic, technical, and military assistance to Pakistan, even extending support in highly sensitive areas such as nuclear technology and equipment transfer (Council on Foreign Relations, 2010). Recently, the China-Pakistan relationship appears to have deepened, with the Pakistan Army receiving its first batch of Chinese-made VT-4 battle tanks in 2021 (Rajagopalan, The China-Pakistan Partnership Continues to Deepen, 2021). The procurement and deployment of Chinese tanks demonstrate further consolidation of the strategic partnership amid evolving international dynamics in the region. In December 2020, Chinese state media disclosed plans to supply 50 Wing Loong II UCAVs to Pakistan, asserting that this move would pose a significant challenge for Indian ground forces in high-altitude regions due to India’s perceived lack of capability in countering modern standoff weapons. This development underscores the ongoing strengthening of ties between China and Pakistan in light of regional shifts. The procurement and deployment of Chinese tanks demonstrate further consolidation of the strategic partnership amid evolving international dynamics in the region. In December 2020, Chinese state media disclosed plans to supply 50 Wing Loong II UCAVs to Pakistan, asserting that this move would pose a significant challenge for Indian ground forces in high-altitude regions due to India’s perceived lack of capability in countering modern standoff weapons. This development underscores the ongoing strengthening of ties between China and Pakistan in light of regional shifts (Rajagopalan, The China-Pakistan Partnership Continues to Deepen, 2021).

Back in 2013, China and Pakistan revealed their joint intentions to establish an economic corridor under the framework of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI encompasses a range of infrastructure and energy ventures between the two nations, with a cumulative investment exceeding $62 billion (Mikhaylov, 2020). This endeavour has substantially contributed to the enhancement of Pakistan’s energy and infrastructure landscape. However, the China-Pakistan corridor not only traverses through Indian territory but also poses a challenge to India’s territorial integrity. This corridor extends through the Gilgit-Baltistan region, which is part of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (Kajal, 2018). The establishment of the corridor has given rise to various security apprehensions in India. The corridor has facilitated a connection between two longstanding adversaries of India. Sushma Swaraj, who served as India’s Minister of External Affairs at the time, expressed India’s worries in the Lok Sabha about the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passing through the region India considers as its occupied territory. The Indian government had officially requested China to cease such activities in that area (Kajal, 2018).

The contentious issue of Chinese infrastructure development in disputed territories between Pakistan and India is being examined from multiple perspectives. India views this as a threat to its territorial integrity and sovereignty, prompting the government to take measures to safeguard its interests. One possible approach involves reinforcing India’s maritime boundaries and bolstering its military presence in the area to deter potential threats. To accomplish this goal, India must make substantial investments in naval infrastructure to improve its capabilities and situational awareness in the maritime domain. Moreover, the country needs to prioritize infrastructure development projects, including roadways and bridges along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), to narrow the gap with China in the border infrastructure competition. Such land-based infrastructure would significantly enhance troop mobility, ensuring swift and efficient troop movement when face with any potential contingencies.

The Way Ahead- India’s Future Prospects and Challenges

In the early 2000s, India devised a strategy centred on deterrence and dissuasion as a precautionary measure to prevent any potential territorial concessions. This strategic approach was formulated in response to concerns regarding the possibility of facing a dual military threat from both China and Pakistan (Singh, The Challenge of a Two-Front War: India’s China-Pakistan Dilemma, 2021). Throughout the history of India-Pakistan conflicts, China has refrained from military intervention, and the strong economic, diplomatic, and political bonds between India and China have served as a deterrent against armed hostilities. As a consequence, India’s strategic focus primarily revolved around Pakistan and the security challenges emanating from that direction. However, recent confrontations with China, including the 2017 Doklam standoff and the 2020 Galwan clash, have compelled India to reassess its security posture concerning China. Presently, India is confronted with the challenge of defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity against two unfriendly neighbours. China and Pakistan have been strengthening their relations through projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which adds to India’s apprehensions. This situation has compelled India to seek ways to effectively address the possibility of confronting threats on two fronts simultaneously. The fact that China’s military spending is almost 5 times that of India and the fact that China is ahead and in some cases way ahead of India in terms of Army, Navy and Air Force capabilities making India’s situation more alarming.

In recent times, the Indian Army is building infrastructure at a rapid pace in eastern Ladakh with a focus on better living experience and improved facilities for soldiers, conservation of modern weapons and equipment deployed there, and supporting faster movement of men and material to deal with any contingency in the midst of the lingering border standoff with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the sensitive sector (Singh R. , 2022). India has also adopted a more assertive approach in its engagement with the United States to address these challenges. To counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, collaborative initiatives such as the Quad were established in 2007. The Quad alliance, comprising India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, was jointly initiated by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Australian Prime Minister John Howard, and then-US Vice President Dick Cheney. The Quad nations hold an annual military exercise known as ‘Exercise Malabar’. However, only the 2007 and 2020 editions saw participation from all four countries. Only India, the United States, and Japan participated in the naval exercise between 2014 and 2019 (Abraham, 2021). In recent times, India has undergone a notable change in its foreign policy approach concerning China. It now actively endorses the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and participates in initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which aims to address China-related challenges. India is wholeheartedly dedicated to strengthening its security partnerships with the other three Quad members: Australia, Japan, and the United States (Kugelman, 2023).

India cannot solely depend on the Quad or any other external alliance to safeguard its territorial integrity. It must proactively undertake measures to bolster the efficacy and efficiency of its military forces. This entails making investments to enhance machinery and technological capabilities, bolstering military preparedness and training, and enhancing communication and coordination among the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The paramount significance of India’s efforts to enhance its infrastructure capabilities along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) lies in safeguarding its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Given the growing complexities and challenges in the region, adopting a proactive stance is imperative to effectively address potential threats. Through strategic investments in modernizing and strengthening its infrastructure, India can not only enhance its military preparedness but also reinforce its ability to deter any potential aggression. With a robust and modernized infrastructure, India will be better equipped to navigate the intricacies of its border relations with China and ensure stability and security in the region for the foreseeable future. India needs to adopt measures aimed at enhancing the efficiency of its armed forces and formulating a comprehensive national strategy to safeguard its territorial integrity and advance its national interests.

Samyak Rachit Banerjee

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