IRAN-IRAQ WAR: CONFLICT ANALYSIS
The two countries, despite sharing almost the same name, which only differs by one letter, have quite different histories and cultures. Over the centuries, relations between Iranians and Iraqis have deteriorated because of their territorial disputes. This finally culminated in the Iran-Iraq War of 1980, which resulted in one of the largest and longest conventional interstate wars and only ended in an effective stalemate eight years later. The war was fuelled by territorial, religious, and political differences. Additionally, we can identify the conflict as a War of aggression to conquest strategic locations and vital resources. However, there was a long historical angst of land disputes between the nations. Furthermore, the war was internationalized because of the indirect involvement of various countries, the reason for which was oil supplies and religious beliefs to some extent.
The Iran-Iraq War holds the significant implications for the present world. The conflict substantially altered the geopolitical landscape of the West Asia, it reshaped alliances and rivalries among the nations, affecting their foreign policies and strategies till today. The conflict deepened the divides between Sunni and Shia Muslims and other ethnicities in the region. The war was marked by use of deadly chemical weapons, along with numerous indiscriminate attacks on hundreds of thousands of civilians, lessons of military tactics and strategies can be learned from the conflict. Its impact on Iranian Foreign Policy was significant, since it respaced its outlook, approach, and relations with other countries. The war contributed to its pursuit of a more assertive foreign policy in the region.
The two major reasons for the war were, firstly, control over the Shatt al-Arad River, a waterway formed by the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The river constitutes the last 80 km of the total 1,599 km-long border between Iran and Iraq. It is the only way for Iraq Source: ResearchGate, Map of Shatt Al-Arab River to enter the waters of the Persian Gulf, playing a significant role in its transportation and exports. Also, the river is of vital importance to Iran for its transportation of crude oil. Therefore, the strategic geographic positioning of the river in the Persian Gulf was the reason both nations claimed sovereignty over the river. In 1937, a pact was signed by both countries to put an end to their prolonged conflicts. However, in April 1969, Iran abrogated the Shatt Arab Treaty of 1937, claiming its sovereignty over half of the river. Iraq, due to its weaker military capacity compared to Iran, had no choice but to accept Iraq’s position. Over the next few years, Iran provided support to the Kurdish insurgency in northern Iraq, pushing Iraqis back to the negotiation table. The result of this was the 1975 Algier Agreement between both nations, recognising the co-sovereignty of Iran over the Shatt al-Arab in exchange for Iran’s withdrawal of support for the Kurdish movements in Iraq.
The other change in the relationship between Iran and Iraq came with the change in the Iranian leadership following the Revolution 1979, which overthrew the western-backed government of Shah Muhammad Reza Pallavi. This was marked as the beginning of the new Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a Shiite cleric. The differences between the countries rapidly increased as Khomeini fundamentally opposed the new Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. He opposed the ruling party in Iraq and called on Islamists in the country to overthrow the government and establish an Islamic Republic like Iran. There was fear of expanding the Iranian Revolution to Iraq and causing a Shia insurgency. Therefore, Saddam sought to overturn the 1975 border agreement, reassert control over both sides of Shatt al-Arab, and expand Iraq’s power as the leading nation in West Asia. This is when the Iran-Iraq war was ignited.
Therefore, we can identify the conflict as a War of aggression to conquest strategic location and vital resources. However, there was a a long historical angst of land disputes between the nations.
On 22nd September 1980, Iraq launched a full-scale war on Iran. The Iraqi Air Force launched series of surprise air strikes on Iran, with the objective of destroying its defence assets. The attack was followed by ground invasion of Khuzestan Province, an oil rich region of Iran, in the second day. As the war continued, by 1982 Iran regained all its lost territories from Iraq. By later 1982, Iraq attempted to find peace by withdrawing all its forces to pre-war borders, but Iran refused and continued the conflict.
The Shia fundamentalist troops of Iran were seen as a threat to other non-religious Arab government in the region. The Ayatollah of Iran pledged not to stop war until he toppled the Saddam Hussien in Iraq. But since such prospect was unacceptable to the Soviet Union, it changed its policy of “Strict neutrality” to support Iraq after 1982. Similarly, the US was already loggerheads with the Iran’s new government over the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran. Hence interestingly, during the cold war era both USSR and the US supported Iraq by supplying advance and sophisticated weapons to Iraq, along with well-trained officers. The US even went further in support including the sale of dual-use technology, military intelligence, and billion dollars’ worth of economic aids. Additionally, Iraq had direct support of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and other Arab states, meanwhile Iran’s only allies in the conflict were Syria and Libya. Therefore, Iraq’s defences remain resilient against the onslaught of Iran. Consequentially, Iraq sparked international outrage for using chemical weapons on Iranian troops and on the Iraqi Kurdish population. The undiscriminated mine attacks on oil cargo regardless the ownership or sources of the ship was a massive headache for the west, as the global oil supplies were severally impacted.
In 1987, war entered to more terrible phase, when both the countries started bombing others capital cities, resulting into deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. Despite a long war, neither any of the country was ready to retreat nor their war aims were fulfilled. However, as the economic cost and loss of human lives increased both the nations were somehow looking to halt the conflict. Eventually, a ceasefire was arranged with the UN intervention and straight talks were held between the countries in August 1988. Peace negotiations were started in October 1988 and finally in 1990, both sides agreed on terms. The consensus was achieved in various issues including withdraw of Iraqi forces from Iranian territory, division of sovereignty over the Shatt al-Arad waterway and exchange of prisoners of war. Substantially, in 1990 both states re-established their diplomatic ties.
The current ties between the countries have significantly improved due to mutual pragmatic interests. Both the countries have become close allies in supporting each other against the Islamic State. Iran has given significant military support to Iraq which has given them political sway over Iraq’s government. From a foreign policy standpoint, a peaceful client is likely a top aim for Iran because Iraq largely depends on the more stable and developed Iran for its energy requirement. Also, Iran is Iraq’s largest trading partner. Both the countries have strong economic relations, with significant trade in goods and services. Iran’s exports to Iraq have increased by 15 times over the past 20 years, rising from about $600 million in 2003 to more than $10 billion as per March 19, 2024. Additionally, in April 2022, an agreement was signed to resume Iranian gas deliveries to Iraq in exchange Baghdad for paying its debts owed to Tehran. In June that year, former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi said that Iran and Iraq had agreed to work toward the stability of the region. However, the current challenges test the relation of both the countries.
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