India should explore new options in Afghanistan

The participation of India’s external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, in the opening ceremony of the crucial intra-Afghan talks through video link has come with this realization that only a miracle can prevent the Afghan Taliban from being integrated into Afghan governing structures following the imminent withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. There is no doubt that the peace negotiations represent the best hope for an eventual settlement between warring Afghan factions that have created uncertainly and chaos across Afghanistan. But it would be a wishful thinking to presume that the Taliban will bring peace and prosperity in Afghanistan.

This underlying reality must prompt India to explore new diplomatic openings with Iran and Russia to secure its national interests in Afghanistan. If India remains deeply engaged with Iran and Russia regarding the intra-Afghan negotiations, it will be in a better position to frustrate Pakistan’s strategic designs to hijack the occasion to forcibly install the Taliban into power. Moreover, this will also help New Delhi to ensure that Afghan soil is not used for any anti-India activities. Islamabad has always attempted to change Afghanistan in its own image and to undermine the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s mainstream politicians by supporting political dissension and separatism through the Taliban. In recent years, China’s cooperation with Pakistan has also increased as Beijing has benefitted from Pakistan’s hosting of anti-India terror organisations and jihadist groups.

Both India and Iran are aware of the challenges once the Taliban become a dominating force with the consequent weakening of the current Kabul regime even though they have differing views on American presence in Afghanistan. Iran has tactically engaged a few accommodating Taliban factions, but it cannot do any business with those espousing hardcore terrorist ideologies. And it is a well-known fact that many of the terror groups are supported by Pakistan. This dynamic is what makes Iran an indispensable partner for India when the US troop presence in Afghanistan is gradually winding down. After Jaishankar’s recent visit to Tehran, India and Iran have also resolved some key differences on infrastructure projects including the one on Chabahar-Zahedan railway project.

The Chabahar port is the most tangible symbol of India-Iran-Afghanistan trilateral cooperation. Ever since the announcement of Iran-China pact for 25 years which envisions infrastructure development in the Chabahar, there has been a visible uneasiness in India’s foreign policy establishment regarding its fate. Moreover, India’s uneasiness has been further compounded by China’s territorial encroachment in the Ladakh region where Beijing’s aggressive actions have set the relatively peaceful Line of Actual Control (LAC) on fire. Since Beijing’s potential involvement in Chabahar project has unmistakable strategic implications for New Delhi, China cannot be allowed to break civilisational links between India and Iran.

After India firmly stood its ground in the Doklam military stand-off three years ago, backlash from China was sure to be swift and vicious. Even armed with that foreboding, New Delhi probably underestimated how ferocious the backlash would be. And after the Galwan crisis in June 2020, Indians have been living the Ladakh nightmare. So there can be no underestimating the geostrategic consequences of China’s subterfuge which has transformed the world in ways that no other power has done in recent decades. While India is no doubt reviewing the challenge posed by China and calibrating its response, the prevailing regional balance of power points to the dilemma of dealing with Beijing.

Balancing and recalibration demand both sensitivity and patience. Many commentators are unacquainted with the nature of the balancing dynamic or are unappreciative of the intricacies involved. But like most diplomatic processes, they are often slow-paced and sometimes, exasperatingly so. Due to changed strategic scenario at the regional and international level, India should step up ties with both Iran and Russia. This will help India to effectively bridge the gap among their respective perceptions on what comes next in Afghanistan.

At a moment when the US is determined to ensure that nothing would be allowed to upset the American exit plans, even ignoring a key provision of the US-Taliban deal in February that the Taliban break its ties to the al-Qaeda which had masterminded the September 11 attacks, India must ensure a framework for a reconfigured Afghan state that is not inimical to its interests. Pakistan has never played a constructive role in Afghanistan. Even though Washington has publicly acknowledged Pakistan’s positive role in facilitating the peace talks, all stakeholders are aware of Pakistan’s real intensions that it wants a client regime in Kabul.

Though America’s approach to the Afghan conflict has been less than sufficient and perfect, President Trump has also dealt a series of damaging blows to American leverage and credibility in the region. A more internally divided America means a more inward-looking White House that will be much less concerned with countering Pakistan’s reprehensible activities in Afghanistan. And if Rawalpindi once feared the potential consequences of Trump’s seemingly unrestrained anger at Pakistan’s duplicity, his administration’s subsequent U-turn has already put those fears to rest. The February 2020 pact between Washington and the Taliban has fixed May 2021 as the date for the final exit. The US troop numbers are expected to fall to 4,500 by this November.

Indians are also watching the US elections very closely as the next occupant of the White House will certainly play a key role in India’s strategic calculations vis-à-vis Iran. On the other hand, irrespective of how the Western countries view Vladimir Putin-led Russia, India likely envisages Moscow’s role in regional security matrix as a balancer. Despite the existing alliance-like relationship between Russia and China, Moscow does share with New Delhi an instinctive preference for holding China in check, as well as a visceral disregard for a world controlled from Beijing. Therefore, greater coordination between India, Iran, and Russia has to be actively cultivated even as New Delhi seems to have few options but to prepare itself in the economic, military and diplomatic domains and navigate a rapidly changing and increasingly uncertain world.

A new web of ties would be a great incentive for India to moderate Chinese aggressiveness as well as Pakistan’s obstinacy. It is late, but not too late, to shore up India’s defenses in time. If New Delhi is to realize its objectives in Afghanistan, it will require leverage and credibility. India must acknowledge that despite the costs, effort, and risks involved, determinedly dealing with China involves renewing and cultivating some traditional ties which were neglected for a long time.

Borderman

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