Time to move from West to East
Increasing threat on India-China border makes it imperative to shift India’s strategic attention from Pakistan to China
The conflict between India and China took an unusually dangerous turn on June 15 when clashes in Ladakh left 20 Indian troops dead. The number of Chinese troops killed in the violent encounter remains unspecified, however intelligence inputs put them around 40. This is a major confrontation that has taken place after 2017 Doklam incident. The situation on the eastern border is tense and regular incidents are being reported frequently on India-China border. The situation as such should force strategic planners to reconsider the revised security matrix at Western and Eastern fronts.
With the abrogation of Article 370, the security situation of the State of Jammu and Kashmir has taken a paradigm change, India is maintaining peace in hinterland initially by imposing restrictions on social media and aggressive position by the present government. All these factors also augmented the vigil and security of the border of the state. All these actions have worked out quite well in curbing the violence since August 2019 till now. There has been a noticeable containment in terrorist-related violence in the valley as a result of enhanced numbers of troops deployed for this political decision by augmenting forces, were pulled out from NE and Naxal operational areas. The next challenge will be to curb the infiltration in summer months when generally more crossing is reported, and militants reactivate their launching pads near Line of Control (LoC).
The international boundary in Jammu area is exclusively manned by Border Security Force (BSF), and the deployment of specialized border guarding force has proved that number of infiltrations is significantly decreased compared to other parts of the union territory of J&K. One of the main reasons for these results may be a difference in methodology of border guarding force and their specialized training and routine practices, understanding of geography, the pattern of deployment, and hinterland.
Border guarding forces are having one of the best border’s professional institutions in the world, with expertise and experience in manning different types of boundaries, the deployment, workforce, weaponry and surveillance equipment, which are primarily oriented to border security. Although this border guarding force also jointly manning some portion of LoC. The dominance on LoC at the most places is in multitier with back up troops from infantry and anti-insurgency battalions deployed at vantage features for AI role. But this type of deployment eats lots of resources and demands a lot of logistical efforts for operational and administrative requirements. There is a probability that we can use a specialized force for exclusively guarding the LoC. As per the given mandate with all the operational and tactical consideration with back up of anti-insurgency force may save regular troops.
The global power axis is shifting from Pacific Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region and rise of China is posing more severe challenges for India on the Eastern front. Pakistan’s position at the global level has witnessed drastic decline in last one decade due to its domestic insurgency, involvement in the Afghan conflict, extremely vulnerable economic condition, fluid economic condition and growing dominance of their Army vis an elected government. Therefore, India must shift its strategic focus from west to east.
In this era of competition for dominance in Asia has made Line of Actual Control (LAC) strategically more critical, where comparatively more tactical deployment is required. At the peak of India-China tensions and uncertainty about Sino-Pak military confrontation, potential escalation and deterioration in the situation, India is now visualizing to strengthen its military posture vis-a-vis China from one of dissuasion to one of deterrence. A conventional military deterrence will require enhanced dominance and construction of strategic military assets, for this India requires more number of troops and an increase in the creation of formations trained and acclimatized for mountain warfare.
Even the dynamics at the diplomatic level is also witnessing new competition for supremacy. China’s economic and military prowess has grown over the past two decades, with its expanding desire to influence those outsides of its borders. While American economic and military power is still reliable, its desire to influence the world as it once had is receding. In a classic transitioning power dynamic, China is seeking a greater role in the world while the United States is willingly and, in some cases, unwillingly ceding it.
In the last two decades, the international status of India has increased manifold, and India is competing with China for influence in Asia. The importance of this region has also been felt by countries like the USA, Australia and Japan. As far as strategic and tactical benchmarking is concerned India has begun to shift its focus from Pakistan to China, for which the security of Eastern Indian border requires new strategic and tactical considerations.
Considering India aspirations at the global level, Asia’s battlefield will be more China-centric instead of Pakistan, where it requires balancing the threat with conventional strategic assets.
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