Shadows in the Valley: The Pahalgam Attack and the Perilous Crossroads of Indo-Pak Tensions
On the tranquil morning of April 22, I found myself in Pahalgam, a jewel of the Kashmir Valley, during what was meant to be a brief observational visit. I have spent years studying and writing about the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir, and this trip was a continuation of that engagement, my attempt to better understand the evolving dynamics of a region that has long stood at the epicentre of conflict and diplomacy.
What I witnessed on the ground was not a landscape marked by tension, but one seemingly healing. The bloom of spring had brought with it a rare vibrancy, tourists thronged Dal Lake, wandered the bustling markets of Lal Chowk and Rajbagh, and filled hotels in Pahalgam and Srinagar. The streets were alive, the shops buzzing, the chatter light. Peace, albeit fragile, was palpable. And then, like a thunderclap in clear skies, came the attack.
Four gunmen, claiming allegiance to a new terror front called “Kashmir Resistance,” opened fire on tourists in Pahalgam, killing 26, and injuring 17. For the first time in the decade’s long history of the Kashmir insurgency, Hindu tourists were directly and deliberately targeted. This marked a grim departure from past patterns: even at the height of militancy, tourism was largely spared. It has always been, and continues to be, the economic lifeblood of the region.
This wasn’t just an act of terror; it was an act of strategic sabotage. The attack was designed not only to sow fear but to disrupt the slow, hard earned return to normalcy that Kashmir has experienced in recent years. It was aimed at creating a wedge between the rest of India and the people of Kashmir by instilling mistrust, rekindling conflict, and ensuring the region remains ensnared in the cycle of poverty and violence.
It would be a mistake to view this attack in isolation. It is the culmination of a calculated shift, one I had warned about in my earlier columns. After a period of relative quiet, signs were emerging that the insurgency was preparing to evolve. Increased local disaffection, hybrid militancy, and radicalization through online propaganda were already shifting the terrain. What happened in Pahalgam should be seen not as an aberration but as a disturbing preview of what may follow if these threats are not adequately addressed.
The Indian government’s response has been swift and stern. Diplomatic relations with Pakistan have been further scaled back, the Indus Waters Treaty suspended, the Attari border closed, and the SAARC visa exemptions revoked. These actions send a strong message, but they also escalate an already volatile situation. The subcontinent stands, once again, at the brink.
Pakistan, for its part, has denied any direct role in the attack, continuing to play the double game of disavowal and strategic ambiguity. But the truth is plain: elements within Pakistan, backed by state and non-state actors, continue to use Kashmir as a pressure point. Supported by international stakeholders with vested interests, they aim to keep the region destabilized.
What must India do now? Retaliation may feel justified, but restraint, tempered by strategy, is wiser. This is a moment that demands more than just tactical response; it demands diplomatic vision. India must focus its energies on breaking the external support system that allows such attacks to happen. This means internationalizing the issue, not in terms of conflict, but in terms of counter-terrorism cooperation.
India should look to mobilize international opinion, particularly in the West, where Pakistan continues to receive diplomatic indulgence and sometimes even financial support. Simultaneously, India must engage with Russia and China not traditional allies in its Kashmir policy, but powerful actors with influence over Islamabad. A coordinated effort to diplomatically isolate Pakistan and hold it accountable for its failure to curb terror financing and sanctuary must become a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy.
And yet, beyond geopolitics, there is the human cost. The fear now gripping the Valley, the shockwave sent through its economy, and the impact on Kashmiri civilians, many of whom are as much victims of this violence as the tourists who perished, cannot be ignored. We must avoid letting this tragedy become a wedge between communities. The people of Kashmir have suffered for too long, often caught between insurgents and governments, between hope and despair.
Poverty and conflict are deeply interlinked. Where economic opportunity grows, militancy wanes. That is why this attack was not only a strike against innocent civilians but a strike against Kashmir’s future. It is imperative that we do not allow that future to be stolen again.
India must respond, firmly, decisively but also wisely. The road ahead is narrow, winding between retaliation and escalation, justice and vengeance. A misstep could lead two nuclear armed nations into confrontation. The public is angry, and pressure on political leadership is mounting. Yet true leadership lies not in satisfying that anger but in channelling it into long term security and stability.
The attack in Pahalgam is a grim reminder that the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir is far from over. But it is also a call to redouble our efforts, not just to protect the region from terror, but to offer it a peace that lasts.
Dr. R K Arora
Dr R K Arora is a seasoned security analyst with three decades of experience in border security, counter-terrorism, cyber security, and international peacekeeping.
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